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Data · 53 figures with sources

Consumer Prices and Inflation Statistics 2026

This page collects 53 figures on consumer prices and inflation: the US Consumer Price Index and its main categories, food, shelter, energy, apparel and other goods, the euro area and UK measures, other large economies, central bank projections and what households expect prices to do next. It uses data published between September and November 2026, mostly from statistical offices (BLS, BEA, Eurostat, ONS, Statistics Canada, ABS), central banks (Federal Reserve, ECB, Bank of England) and international bodies (OECD, FAO). Because BLS did not collect October 2025 prices during the 2025 funding lapse, the latest US 12-month changes are for September 2026.

By the Comredix review desk · Updated November 13, 2026 · 53 numbers drawn from 18 publishers and reports

Short answer

US consumer prices rose 3.7% in the 12 months to September 2026, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, driven by a 20.4% jump in energy prices while food rose 2.5% and shelter 3.2%. Euro area inflation was 4.0% in October 2026 per Eurostat's flash estimate, and UK CPI inflation was 3.5% in September 2026 according to the Office for National Statistics, with the Bank of England expecting it to reach around 5% by mid-2027.

Headline numbers

  1. 3.7%The US Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers rose 3.7% in the 12 months to September 2026, up from 3.4% in the year to August.U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
  2. 20.4%The US CPI energy index was 20.4% higher in September 2026 than a year earlier.U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
  3. 1.8%US food at home prices rose 1.8% in the 12 months to September 2026.U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
  4. 3.2%The US CPI shelter index rose 3.2% in the 12 months to September 2026.U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
  5. 3.4%US apparel prices rose 3.4% in the 12 months to September 2026, unadjusted, according to the CPI detail table.U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
  6. 4.0%Euro area annual inflation was an estimated 4.0% in October 2026, up from 3.8% in September, according to Eurostat's flash estimate.Eurostat
  7. 3.5%UK CPI inflation rose to 3.5% in the 12 months to September 2026, from 3.1% in August.Office for National Statistics
  8. 7.7%US consumers expected rent to rise 7.7% over the next year, the median in the New York Fed's October 2026 survey.Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Reading the numbers

The 2026 inflation picture is mostly an energy story. BLS puts the US energy index 20.4% higher in September 2026 than a year earlier, with gasoline up 34.2%, while the index excluding food and energy rose a more modest 2.6%. The same pattern shows up across the OECD, where energy inflation reached 17.4% in September and lifted headline inflation to 4.5%, while core inflation stayed broadly stable at 3.7%. Eurostat's October flash estimate puts euro area energy inflation at 20.8%.

Food is the main exception. US food at home prices rose only 1.8% over the year to September 2026, UK food and non-alcoholic beverage prices rose 1.3% (the lowest rate since 2021, per the ONS) and Canadian grocery prices rose 1.7%. USDA's Economic Research Service still forecasts beef and veal prices up 8.7% in 2026, offset by egg prices forecast to fall 29.3%. Prices at restaurants are rising faster than at grocery stores in both the US and UK.

Shelter remains the largest single driver of US core inflation because it carries about a third of the CPI weight, and it rose 3.2% over the year. Apparel prices rose 3.4% while used cars fell 1.5%, and core goods overall rose just 0.7%. In the UK, services inflation (3.7%) still runs ahead of goods (3.2%), and in the euro area services rose 3.3% in October against 1.2% for non-energy industrial goods.

Central banks are split on how to respond. The Federal Reserve held its target range at 3-3/4 to 4 percent in October 2026 with two dissents in favor of a hike, the ECB kept its deposit rate at 2.50% and the Bank of England raised Bank Rate to 4% in November. Households expect more inflation ahead: the New York Fed's October survey found median one-year expectations of 3.9%, and the University of Michigan's preliminary November reading was 4.3%.

US consumer price inflation

  1. 1.

    The US Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers rose 3.7% in the 12 months to September 2026, up from 3.4% in the year to August.

    U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index, September 2026 (Oct 2026)

    Exact wording at the source
    The all items index rose 3.7 percent for the 12 months ending September, a larger increase than the 3.4-percent increase reported for the 12 months ending in August.
  2. 2.

    US CPI excluding food and energy rose 2.6% in the year to September 2026, after a 2.4% rise in the year to August.

    U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index, September 2026 (Oct 2026)

    Exact wording at the source
    The all items less food and energy index rose 2.6 percent over the year, following a 2.4-percent increase over the 12 months ending August.
  3. 3.

    The US CPI energy index was 20.4% higher in September 2026 than a year earlier.

    U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index, September 2026 (Oct 2026)

    Exact wording at the source
    The energy index increased 20.4 percent for the 12 months ending September.
  4. 4.

    US gasoline prices in the CPI rose 34.2% in the 12 months to September 2026, the main reason energy inflation surged.

    U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index, September 2026 (Oct 2026)

    Exact wording at the source
    The index for energy increased 20.4 percent over the past 12 months due in large part to the index for gasoline rising 34.2 percent over the same period.
  5. 5.

    US consumer prices rose 0.4% in October 2026 on a seasonally adjusted basis, after a 0.6% rise in September.

    U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index, October 2026 (Nov 2026)

    Exact wording at the source
    The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in October after rising 0.6 percent in September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.
  6. 6.

    The US PCE price index rose 3.6% in the 12 months to September 2026.

    U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Income and Outlays, September 2026 (Oct 2026)

    Exact wording at the source
    From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index for September increased 3.6 percent .
  7. 7.

    The US PCE price index excluding food and energy rose 3.1% in the year to September 2026, higher than core CPI.

    U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Income and Outlays, September 2026 (Oct 2026)

    Exact wording at the source
    Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 3.1 percent from one year ago.
  8. 8.

    The Federal Reserve held the federal funds target range at 3.75% to 4% in October 2026 while aiming to return inflation to its 2% goal.

    Federal Reserve Board, Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement, October 28, 2026 (Oct 2026)

    Exact wording at the source
    The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-3/4 to 4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate.
  9. 9.

    The median Federal Reserve policymaker projected US PCE inflation of 3.7% for 2026, falling to 2.3% in 2027, in the September 2026 projections.

    Federal Reserve Board, Summary of Economic Projections, September 16, 2026 (Sep 2026)

    Exact wording at the source
    PCE inflation 3.7 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.0

Chart

US CPI 12-month change by component, September 2026

CPI for All Urban Consumers, US city average, not seasonally adjusted, 12 months ending September 2026.

  • Energy20.4%
  • All items3.7%
  • All items less food and energy2.6%
  • Food2.5%

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index, September 2026

Food and grocery prices

  1. 10.

    US food at home prices rose 1.8% in the 12 months to September 2026.

    U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index, September 2026 (Oct 2026)

    Exact wording at the source
    The food at home index rose 1.8 percent over the 12 months ending in September.
  2. 11.

    US food away from home prices, which cover restaurants and takeout, rose 3.5% in the year to September 2026.

    U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index, September 2026 (Oct 2026)

    Exact wording at the source
    The food away from home index rose 3.5 percent over the last year.
  3. 12.

    USDA's Economic Research Service forecasts US prices for all food to rise 2.8% in 2026, slightly below the 20-year average of 3.0% a year.

    USDA Economic Research Service, Food Price Outlook: Summary Findings (Oct 2026)

    Exact wording at the source
    In 2026, prices for all food are forecast to increase 2.8 percent, with a forecast interval of 2.6 to 3.1 percent.
  4. 13.

    USDA forecasts US food at home prices to rise 2.3% in 2026 and 1.0% in 2027.

    USDA Economic Research Service, Food Price Outlook: Summary Findings (Oct 2026)

    Exact wording at the source
    In 2026, food-at-home prices are forecast to increase 2.3 percent, with a forecast interval of 1.9 to 2.7 percent.
  5. 14.

    USDA forecasts US retail beef and veal prices to rise 8.7% in 2026 as beef production stays below 2025 levels.

    USDA Economic Research Service, Food Price Outlook: Summary Findings (Oct 2026)

    Exact wording at the source
    Beef and veal prices are forecast to increase 8.7 percent in 2026, with a forecast interval of 7.4 to 10.1 percent.
  6. 15.

    USDA forecasts US retail egg prices to fall 29.3% in 2026 as egg production recovers.

    USDA Economic Research Service, Food Price Outlook: Summary Findings (Oct 2026)

    Exact wording at the source
    Egg prices are forecast to decrease 29.3 percent in 2026, with a forecast interval of -31.6 to -26.7 percent.
  7. 16.

    The FAO Food Price Index of world commodity food prices averaged 133.9 points in October 2026, down 1.2% from September.

    Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, FAO Food Price Index (Nov 2026)

    Exact wording at the source
    The FAO Food Price Index (FFPI ) * averaged 133.9 points in October 2026, down 1.6 points (1.2 percent) from its revised September level.
  8. 17.

    World food commodity prices in October 2026 were 5.9% higher than a year earlier but 16.4% below their March 2022 peak, according to the FAO.

    Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, FAO Food Price Index (Nov 2026)

    Exact wording at the source
    Compared to a year earlier, the FFPI stood 7.5 points (5.9 percent) higher but remained 26.3 points (16.4 percent) below its March 2022 peak.
  9. 18.

    Euro area food, alcohol and tobacco prices rose an estimated 1.6% in the year to October 2026, up from 1.3% in September.

    Eurostat, Euro area annual inflation up to 4.0%, flash estimate October 2026 (Nov 2026)

    Exact wording at the source
    food, alcohol & tobacco (1.6%, compared with 1.3% in September)
  10. 19.

    UK food and non-alcoholic beverage prices rose 1.3% in the 12 months to September 2026, the lowest rate since September 2021.

    Office for National Statistics, Consumer price inflation, UK: September 2026 (Oct 2026)

    Exact wording at the source
    The 12-month inflation rate for food and non-alcoholic beverages was 1.3% in September 2026, unchanged from August (Figure 4).
  11. 20.

    Canadian grocery store food prices rose 1.7% in the year to September 2026, down from 2.8% in August.

    Statistics Canada, Consumer Price Index, September 2026 (Oct 2026)

    Exact wording at the source
    Prices for food purchased from stores rose 1.7% year over year in September, after increasing 2.8% in August.
  12. 21.

    Canadian grocery prices in September 2026 were 33.0% higher than in September 2020.

    Statistics Canada, Consumer Price Index, September 2026 (Oct 2026)

    Exact wording at the source
    Despite the year-over-year slowdown in prices for groceries, prices have increased 33.0% since September 2020.

Chart

US grocery price change by food group, 12 months to September 2026

Food at home CPI groups, US city average, not seasonally adjusted, September 2025 to September 2026.

  • Nonalcoholic beverages3.8%
  • Fruits and vegetables3.7%
  • Cereals and bakery products2.1%
  • Other food at home1.8%
  • Meats, poultry, fish and eggs0.3%
  • Dairy and related products-0.7%

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index, September 2026

Shelter, energy and travel costs

  1. 22.

    The US CPI shelter index rose 3.2% in the 12 months to September 2026.

    U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index, September 2026 (Oct 2026)

    Exact wording at the source
    The shelter index increased 3.2 percent over the last year.
  2. 23.

    US electricity prices rose 4.4% and piped natural gas prices 5.0% in the year to September 2026.

    U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index, September 2026 (Oct 2026)

    Exact wording at the source
    The natural gas index increased 5.0 percent over the 12 months ending in September, and the electricity index rose 4.4 percent.
  3. 24.

    US airline fares rose 22.4% in the 12 months to September 2026, among the largest increases in the CPI.

    U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index, September 2026 (Oct 2026)

    Exact wording at the source
    Other indexes with notable increases over the last year include airline fares (+22.4 percent), recreation (+2.8 percent), medical care (+1.5 percent), and education (+3.8 percent).
  4. 25.

    The average UK petrol price was 169.5 pence per litre in September 2026, the highest since August 2022.

    Office for National Statistics, Consumer price inflation, UK: September 2026 (Oct 2026)

    Exact wording at the source
    The average price stood at 169.5 pence per litre in September 2026. This is the highest price recorded since August 2022.
  5. 26.

    Euro area energy prices rose an estimated 20.8% in the year to October 2026, the fastest of any main component.

    Eurostat, Euro area annual inflation up to 4.0%, flash estimate October 2026 (Nov 2026)

    Exact wording at the source
    energy is expected to have the highest annual rate in October (20.8%, compared with 18.9% in September)

Apparel and other goods versus services

  1. 27.

    US apparel prices rose 3.4% in the 12 months to September 2026, unadjusted, according to the CPI detail table.

    U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index, September 2026, Table 1 (Oct 2026)

    Exact wording at the source
    Apparel 2.445 135.424 136.752 140.043 3.4
  2. 28.

    US used car and truck prices fell 1.5% in the year to September 2026.

    U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index, September 2026, Table 1 (Oct 2026)

    Exact wording at the source
    Used cars and trucks 2.688 187.121 184.580 184.395 -1.5
  3. 29.

    UK CPI goods inflation rose to 3.2% in September 2026, from 2.7% in August.

    Office for National Statistics, Consumer price inflation, UK: September 2026 (Oct 2026)

    Exact wording at the source
    the CPI goods annual rate rose from 2.7% to 3.2%, while the CPI services annual rate rose from 3.4% to 3.7%.
  4. 30.

    UK CPI services inflation was 3.7% in the 12 months to September 2026, up from 3.4%.

    Office for National Statistics, Consumer price inflation, UK: September 2026 (Oct 2026)

    Exact wording at the source
    the CPI goods annual rate rose from 2.7% to 3.2%, while the CPI services annual rate rose from 3.4% to 3.7%.
  5. 31.

    Euro area non-energy industrial goods prices, which include clothing, cars and household goods, rose an estimated 1.2% in the year to October 2026.

    Eurostat, Euro area annual inflation up to 4.0%, flash estimate October 2026 (Nov 2026)

    Exact wording at the source
    non-energy industrial goods (1.2%, compared with 1.1% in September)
  6. 32.

    Euro area services prices rose an estimated 3.3% in the year to October 2026.

    Eurostat, Euro area annual inflation up to 4.0%, flash estimate October 2026 (Nov 2026)

    Exact wording at the source
    followed by services (3.3%, compared with 3.2% in September)

Chart

Euro area inflation by main component, October 2026 flash estimate

HICP annual rates for the euro area, flash estimate for October 2026, published 4 November 2026.

  • Energy20.8%
  • Services3.3%
  • Food, alcohol and tobacco1.6%
  • Non-energy industrial goods1.2%

Source: Eurostat, Euro area annual inflation up to 4.0%, flash estimate October 2026

Euro area and UK inflation

  1. 33.

    Euro area annual inflation was an estimated 4.0% in October 2026, up from 3.8% in September, according to Eurostat's flash estimate.

    Eurostat, Euro area annual inflation up to 4.0%, flash estimate October 2026 (Nov 2026)

    Exact wording at the source
    Euro area annual inflation is expected to be 4.0% in October 2026, up from 3.8% in September according to a flash estimate from Eurostat
  2. 34.

    Final data put euro area HICP inflation at 3.8% in September 2026, compared with 2.2% a year earlier.

    Eurostat, Annual inflation up to 3.8% in the euro area, September 2026 (Oct 2026)

    Exact wording at the source
    The euro area annual inflation rate was 3.8 % in September 2026
  3. 35.

    Romania had the highest annual inflation rate in the EU in September 2026 at 6.5%, followed by Lithuania at 6.1%.

    Eurostat, Annual inflation up to 3.8% in the euro area, September 2026 (Oct 2026)

    Exact wording at the source
    The highest annual rates were recorded in Romania (6.5%), Lithuania (6.1%) and Bulgaria (5.6%)
  4. 36.

    UK CPI inflation rose to 3.5% in the 12 months to September 2026, from 3.1% in August.

    Office for National Statistics, Consumer price inflation, UK: September 2026 (Oct 2026)

    Exact wording at the source
    The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 3.5% in the 12 months to September 2026, up from 3.1% the previous month.
  5. 37.

    UK CPIH, the ONS measure that includes owner occupiers' housing costs, rose 3.6% in the year to September 2026.

    Office for National Statistics, Consumer price inflation, UK: September 2026 (Oct 2026)

    Exact wording at the source
    The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) rose by 3.6% in the 12 months to September 2026, up from 3.3% the previous month.
  6. 38.

    The ECB kept its deposit facility rate at 2.50% at its October 2026 meeting.

    European Central Bank, Monetary policy decisions, 29 October 2026 (Oct 2026)

    Exact wording at the source
    The interest rates on the deposit facility, the main refinancing operations and the marginal lending facility will remain unchanged at 2.50%, 2.65% and 2.90% respectively.
  7. 39.

    ECB staff projected euro area headline inflation of 3.0% for 2026, up from 2.1% in 2025, in September 2026.

    European Central Bank, ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, September 2026 (Sep 2026)

    Exact wording at the source
    Headline inflation is projected to increase to 3.0% in 2026, from 2.1% in 2025, mainly driven by higher energy prices, and then to decline to 2.1% in 2028 as the energy shock fades (Chart 5 and Table 3).
  8. 40.

    ECB staff expected euro area inflation to peak at 3.6% in the fourth quarter of 2026.

    European Central Bank, ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, September 2026 (Sep 2026)

    Exact wording at the source
    Conditional on the market-based assumptions for energy commodity prices, headline inflation is expected to increase to 3.6% in the fourth quarter of 2026, driven by higher energy inflation but also reflecting higher rates for the NEIG and food components.
  9. 41.

    The Bank of England raised Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4% in November 2026, on an 8 to 1 vote.

    Bank of England, Monetary Policy Summary and minutes, November 2026 (Nov 2026)

    Exact wording at the source
    At its meeting ending on 4 November 2026, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 8–1 to increase Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points, to 4%.
  10. 42.

    The Bank of England expects UK CPI inflation to rise to around 5% by the middle of 2027.

    Bank of England, Monetary Policy Summary and minutes, November 2026 (Nov 2026)

    Exact wording at the source
    UK CPI inflation increased to 3.5% in September. It is now expected to rise to around 5% by the middle of next year.

Inflation across the OECD, Canada and Australia

  1. 43.

    Year-on-year consumer price inflation across OECD countries rose to 4.5% in September 2026, from 4.3% in August.

    OECD, Consumer prices, OECD, updated 6 November 2026 (Nov 2026)

    Exact wording at the source
    Year-on-year inflation in the OECD, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose to 4.5% in September 2026, up from 4.3% in August (Table 1, Figures 1 and 2).
  2. 44.

    OECD energy inflation reached 17.4% in September 2026, up from 13.6% in August.

    OECD, Consumer prices, OECD, updated 6 November 2026 (Nov 2026)

    Exact wording at the source
    Energy prices largely drove the acceleration in OECD inflation, with year-on-year energy inflation growing sharply to 17.4% in September, up from 13.6% in August.
  3. 45.

    Average consumer prices across the OECD were more than 40% above their December 2019 level in September 2026.

    OECD, Consumer prices, OECD, updated 6 November 2026 (Nov 2026)

    Exact wording at the source
    Average prices across the OECD were more than 40% above their December 2019 levels, before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.
  4. 46.

    OECD food prices are almost 50% higher and energy prices close to 70% higher than before the pandemic.

    OECD, Consumer prices, OECD, updated 6 November 2026 (Nov 2026)

    Exact wording at the source
    On average, food prices are almost 50% higher than before the pandemic, while energy prices are close to 70% higher (Figure 3).
  5. 47.

    Canada's Consumer Price Index rose 3.1% in the year to September 2026, led by a 27.8% rise in gasoline prices.

    Statistics Canada, Consumer Price Index, September 2026 (Oct 2026)

    Exact wording at the source
    The Consumer Price Index ( CPI ) rose 3.1% year over year in September, following a 3.0% increase in August.
  6. 48.

    Australia's Consumer Price Index rose 4.3% in the 12 months to September 2026.

    Australian Bureau of Statistics, Consumer Price Index, Australia, September 2026 (Oct 2026)

    Exact wording at the source
    The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 4.3%, up from 4.0% in the 12 months to August 2026.

What consumers expect prices to do next

  1. 49.

    US consumers' median one-year-ahead inflation expectation was 3.9% in October 2026, with three-year expectations at 3.3%.

    Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Survey of Consumer Expectations, October 2026 (Nov 2026)

    Exact wording at the source
    Median inflation expectations were unchanged at the one-year, three-year, and five-year-ahead horizons at 3.9%, 3.3%, and 3.0%, respectively.
  2. 50.

    US consumers expected food prices to rise 5.5% over the next year in October 2026, the median answer in the New York Fed survey.

    Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Survey of Consumer Expectations, October 2026 (Nov 2026)

    Exact wording at the source
    Among commodities, median year-ahead expected price changes decreased by 0.6 percentage point to 4.2% for gas and were unchanged at 5.5% for food.
  3. 51.

    US consumers expected rent to rise 7.7% over the next year, the median in the New York Fed's October 2026 survey.

    Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Survey of Consumer Expectations, October 2026 (Nov 2026)

    Exact wording at the source
    Median year-ahead expected price changes increased by 0.1 percentage point to 9.3% for the cost of medical care, by 0.1 percentage point to 7.6% for the cost of college education, and by 0.9 percentage point to 7.7% for rent.
  4. 52.

    US consumers' year-ahead inflation expectations fell to 4.3% in the University of Michigan's preliminary November 2026 survey, from 4.7% in October.

    University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, Surveys of Consumers, preliminary results for November 2026 (Nov 2026)

    Exact wording at the source
    Year-ahead inflation expectations declined from 4.7% last month to 4.3% this month.
  5. 53.

    US consumers' long-run inflation expectations were 3.4% in the preliminary November 2026 Michigan survey.

    University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, Surveys of Consumers, preliminary results for November 2026 (Nov 2026)

    Exact wording at the source
    Long-run inflation expectations inched down from 3.5% in October to 3.4%

Chart

Price changes US consumers expect over the next year, October 2026

Median expected price change over the next 12 months, Survey of Consumer Expectations panel of about 1,300 US household heads, October 2026.

  • Medical care9.3%
  • Rent7.7%
  • College education7.6%
  • Food5.5%
  • Gas4.2%

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Survey of Consumer Expectations, October 2026

Questions readers ask

What is the current US inflation rate?
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that US consumer prices rose 3.7% in the 12 months to September 2026, and core prices excluding food and energy rose 2.6%. Prices rose a further 0.4% in October 2026, but BLS could not publish a 12-month rate for October because October 2025 data were not collected.
How much have grocery prices gone up?
US food at home prices rose 1.8% in the year to September 2026 according to BLS, while restaurant prices rose 3.5%. USDA's Economic Research Service forecasts grocery prices to rise 2.3% for all of 2026, with beef up 8.7% and eggs down 29.3%.
Is inflation higher in the US, the euro area or the UK?
They are now close. US CPI inflation was 3.7% in September 2026, euro area inflation was 3.8% in September and an estimated 4.0% in October per Eurostat, and UK CPI inflation was 3.5% in September according to the ONS. The measures differ in how they treat housing costs, so small gaps should not be over-read.
Why did inflation rise in 2026?
Mainly energy. The US energy index rose 20.4% over the year to September 2026, with gasoline up 34.2%, and the OECD reports energy inflation of 17.4% across member countries. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, stayed much lower at 2.6% in the US and about 2.5% in the euro area.
What inflation do consumers expect next year?
The New York Fed's October 2026 survey found US consumers expect 3.9% inflation over the next year, with rent expected to rise 7.7% and food 5.5%. The University of Michigan's preliminary November 2026 reading put year-ahead expectations at 4.3%.

Where these numbers come from

We used primary publishers only: statistical offices (BLS, BEA, Eurostat, ONS, Statistics Canada, ABS), central banks (Federal Reserve Board, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, ECB, Bank of England), USDA's Economic Research Service, the University of Michigan survey team, and international bodies (OECD, FAO). Every quote was refetched from the source page. Measures are not identical: the US CPI includes owner-occupied housing through owners' equivalent rent, while the euro area HICP and UK CPI exclude it (the UK's CPIH includes it). BLS could not publish 12-month changes for October 2026 because October 2025 prices were not collected during the 2025 funding lapse, so US annual figures stop at September 2026. Eurostat's October figures are flash estimates and may be revised, central bank projections are forecasts rather than outcomes, and the Michigan November figures are preliminary. We store the sentence each number appears in, and a script loads the publisher's page again to make sure that sentence is still there. Our methodology has the details.

Sources

  1. Australian Bureau of Statistics. Consumer Price Index, Australia, September 2026 (Oct 2026).
  2. Bank of England. Monetary Policy Summary and minutes, November 2026 (Nov 2026).
  3. European Central Bank. Monetary policy decisions, 29 October 2026 (Oct 2026).
  4. European Central Bank. ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, September 2026 (Sep 2026).
  5. Eurostat. Euro area annual inflation up to 4.0%, flash estimate October 2026 (Nov 2026).
  6. Eurostat. Annual inflation up to 3.8% in the euro area, September 2026 (Oct 2026).
  7. Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Survey of Consumer Expectations, October 2026 (Nov 2026).
  8. Federal Reserve Board. Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement, October 28, 2026 (Oct 2026).
  9. Federal Reserve Board. Summary of Economic Projections, September 16, 2026 (Sep 2026).
  10. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. FAO Food Price Index (Nov 2026).
  11. OECD. Consumer prices, OECD, updated 6 November 2026 (Nov 2026).
  12. Office for National Statistics. Consumer price inflation, UK: September 2026 (Oct 2026).
  13. Statistics Canada. Consumer Price Index, September 2026 (Oct 2026).
  14. U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal Income and Outlays, September 2026 (Oct 2026).
  15. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Consumer Price Index, September 2026 (Oct 2026).
  16. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Consumer Price Index, October 2026 (Nov 2026).
  17. University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers. Surveys of Consumers, preliminary results for November 2026 (Nov 2026).
  18. USDA Economic Research Service. Food Price Outlook: Summary Findings (Oct 2026).

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