Holiday Shopping Statistics 2026

The National Retail Federation today released its annual holiday forecast, predicting retail sales in November and December will grow 4.2% over 2025.

That translates to total spending of $1.013 trillion.

By comparison, last year’s holiday sales rose 3.1% over 2024 totaling $972 billion.

NRF expects retailers to hire between 325,000 and 375,000 seasonal workers, in line with last year’s estimated 356,000 seasonal jobs.

Based on Retail Monitor data, 2025 holiday sales from Nov. 1 through Dec. 31 grew 4.1%.

U.S. retail sales excluding automotive increased 3.9% year-over-year from November 1 through December 21.

forecast, the Mastercard Economics Institute expects the strongest holiday season in four years, with spending growth of 5.5% year over year.

13.7% The estimated percentage of 2024 hobby, toy and game store sales that occurred in December.

Consumers spent $257.8 billion online from Nov. 1 to Dec. 31, up 6.8% year-over-year (YoY) and setting a new record for e-commerce.

Adobe expects U.S. online sales to hit $275.1 billion this holiday season (Nov. 1 to Dec. 31, 2026), growing 6.7% year-over-year (YoY).

Mobile shopping hit a new milestone, with the majority of online transactions (56.4%) taking place through a smartphone this season (up from 54.5% in 2024)

reporting record-breaking online sales of $1.29 trillion globally and $294 billion in the United States, with strong influence from AI and agents .

E-commerce sales surged +7.4%, while in-store sales grew +2.9%, underscoring the convergence of blended shopping experiences.

Online sales are expected to grow 11% year over year.

$146.6 billion The estimated value of retail sales by electronic shopping and mail-order houses in December 2024, the highest estimated total for any month last year.

consumers plan to do 52% of their holiday shopping online, less than the 56% we saw last year.

Although shoppers plan to allocate 55% of their retail holiday budgets online, many still favor in-store shopping for certain categories

Cyber Monday remained the biggest e-commerce day of the season (and year), driving $14.25 billion in online spend, up 7.1% YoY.

Cyber Monday growth was outpaced by Black Friday ($11.8 billion, up 9.1% YoY), as consumers embraced earlier deals.

Record online spending this season was bolstered by a strong Cyber Week (the five days from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday), which brought in $44.2 billion online overall, up 7.7% YoY.

e-commerce, with consumers spending over $15 billion online in a single day ($15.1 billion, up 6.2% YoY).

This was another record-breaking shopping week, with overall industry global sales increasing 7% year over year (YOY) to $336.6 billion, and U.S.

Black Friday drove $79 billion in global sales (up 6% YOY), and $18 billion in the U.S.

A record 202.9 million consumers shopped during the five-day holiday weekend from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday, according to the annual consumer survey released today by the National Retail Federation and Prosper Insights & Analytics.

Black Friday remains the top shopping day for both in-store and online, attracting 80.3 million in-store shoppers and 85.7 million online, slightly below last year’s totals of 81.7 million and 87.3 million, respectively.

Cyber Monday continues to be the second most popular day for online shopping, attracting 75.9 million online shoppers compared with 64.4 million in 2024.

Nearly all (96%) of those shopping over the weekend made a holiday-related purchase, spending $337.86 on average on items like gifts, holiday apparel, decorations and other seasonal purchases.

$14.6 billion in global sales* from merchants, a 27% increase in sales from 2024

Average cart price: $114.70 ($112.29 on a constant currency basis)

And over the four-day shopping period alone, TikTok Shop saw extraordinary growth, with sales exceeding $500 million.

Surveyed consumers expect to spend $1,654 on average this holiday shopping season, up 4% from $1,595 in 2025, with gains primarily coming from Gen Z and millennials; both groups plan to increase spend by double digits year over year.

Households earning $200K+ plan to spend $3,607 on average, more than five times the $693 expected by those earning under $50K.

For the first time in our annual survey, Gen Z and millennials are expected to account for 50% of holiday spending, presenting a meaningful opportunity for retailers.

On average, consumers expect to spend $708 on gifts this year.

And unsurprisingly, kids keep spending high: Households with children expect to spend more ($875), compared to households without children ($635).

Fifty percent of holiday shoppers plan to gift an experience, such as to a restaurant (in-person meal or gift card; 37%) or tickets to an event (19%), but 79% of shoppers planning to gift an experience also want to pair it with a physical item.

Among shoppers planning or considering a self-gift, the average expected spend is $299, up 13% from 2025 and 20% from 2024.

Two-thirds (64%) say they are likely to wait until Thanksgiving weekend to do most of their holiday shopping, compared with just 51% five years ago.

Thanksgiving week drives timing: 43 percent will do most of their gift buying from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday, 62 percent say it offers the best deals, and 46 percent are very likely to shop Cyber Monday.

Usage of the flexible payment method hit an all-time high this holiday season, contributing $20 billion in online spend, up 9.8% YoY and representing $1.8 billion more than the last season.

According to an Experian survey, close to half of consumers (43%) have used or plan to use BNPL plans to cover expenses this holiday shopping season.

This season, traffic to retail sites from generative AI tools (shoppers clicking on a link to a retail site) increased by 693.4% compared to the year prior.

adults (54%) have already used AI for at least one shopping task, up from 47% last year.

29% of consumers plan to use AI as part of their holiday shopping experience, up from 22% last year

Mobile devices drove 70% of online orders both globally and in the U.S., and mobile wallets continued to grow as a top form of payment, used for 27% of all global orders and 29% in the U.S.

The rate of returns rises: More than $181 billion of global online purchases made between November 1 and December 31 have already been returned.

New data from Narvar shows that while overall holiday order volume increased approximately 6% year over year, return volume rose nearly twice as fast—up roughly 11%—pushing return rates higher across multiple retail categories.

Social media is the standout this season, with its share of revenue coming in at 4.6%, up a significant 40.3% YoY (2024: 3.3% share, up 5.4% YoY).

Retail sales volumes are estimated to have risen by 0.4% in December 2025, following a fall of 0.1% in November 2025 (unrevised from our previous publication) and a fall of 0.8% in October 2025 (revised up from a 0.9% fall in our previous publication).

With the monthly series, online sales values rose by 1.8% over the month to December 2025, and by 11.1% when comparing December 2025 with December 2024.

As a result, the proportion of sales made online rose from 28.0% in November 2025 to 28.3% in December 2025.

However, looking at our non-seasonally adjusted data (which do not adjust for Black Friday) sales volumes rose by 11.9% over the month to November 2025, compared with a rise of 4.4% in October 2025.

Our Public opinion and social trends, Great Britain: November 2025 release reported that around 3 in 10 adults (31%) planned to shop in the Black Friday sales; 19% reported that they intended to shop less than last year, while 10% intended to shop more.